Manu Mythil Muralee
Quantitative strategist and applied economist. Dual Master's from IE Business School, both completed: Applied Economics, fintech and AI, and Management, strategy and organisational transformation.
Ran $6.5M of physical commodity trade solo out of Dubai: 7,000 MT of kraftliner paper ($5.5M) from mills in Sweden, France and Russia to buyers in India and Sri Lanka, plus a $1M tea market entry into Bolivia.
Build the models underneath decisions like that: statistical arbitrage across 118,833 S&P 500 pairs, GARCH-XGBoost volatility forecasting, macro-regime detection with an autoencoder and Gaussian mixture models.
Model it
Statistical arbitrage across 118,833 S&P 500 pairs (DBSCAN, Engle-Granger)
GARCH-XGBoost volatility forecaster; autoencoder and GMM macro-regime classifier
Price it
Scenario DCF on the kraftliner trade, stress-tested across shipping, raw material, blending and labour
CAC and payback-period thresholds defined to test commercial viability (Hyundai España)
Social Cost of Carbon internalisation rates modelled across environmental impact drivers (VBA capstone)
Sell it
$100K pre-series raise closed with international investors
500+ consumer interviews across 4 Indian state markets
Ship it
The route
500+ interviews · 4 state markets
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Learned to measure
Sri City, Andhra Pradesh, India
Krea University
Research Assistant
Nov 2021 – Jul 2023
200+ road stretches, 10 years of NHAI data, infrastructure ROI.
The detail
- Geo-processed the road network in ArcGIS, then built econometric models measuring how road investment translates into regional development.
- Completed 40+ case studies on predictive tools and digital payment systems.
- Researched environmental economics and the Earth System Boundaries framework.
The working
SawTen years of NHAI road data nobody had structured.
AskedDoes infrastructure spend actually translate into regional development, or is that assumed?
BuiltGeo-processed 200+ road stretches in ArcGIS and modelled the return econometrically.
DidProduced a measurable answer in place of an assumed one.
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Learned to raise
Kochi, Kerala, India
GSRV & Associates
Market Research Analyst
Sep 2023 – Nov 2023
500+ interviews across 4 state markets, behind a $100K raise.
The detail
- The four markets: Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Fieldwork for a sustainable footwear line.
- Translated the research into a feasibility model covering pricing and cost structure.
- Built investor-grade models, KPI dashboards and pitch materials.
- Owned the investor relationship through due diligence.
The working
SawA sustainable footwear line with no demand evidence, and investors who would not move without it.
AskedIs there real willingness to pay, and at what price?
Built500+ interviews across four state markets, then a feasibility model on pricing and cost structure.
DidThe evidence base closed a $100K pre-series raise.
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Learned to trade
Dubai, UAE
FourEM Global FZE
Physical Commodity Trader
Nov 2023 – Aug 2025
$6.5M of physical commodity trade run solo: $5.5M kraftliner paper, $1M tea into Bolivia.
The detail
- The gap: local mills could not meet quality benchmarks, leaving buyers stuck on fragmented imports.
- Scenario DCF stress-tested across shipping, raw material, blending and labour.
- Primary research on willingness to pay, demand fundamentals and competitor cost structure.
- 7,000 MT of kraftliner paper worth $5.5M, sourced from mills in Sweden, France and Russia and sold to packaging buyers in India and Sri Lanka.
- Identified and appointed the distributor for the company's branded tea in Bolivia, shipping $1M of product.
- Solely responsible for generating enquiries, negotiating price and payment terms, and running the trade end to end through Dubai.
The working
SawIndian and Sri Lankan buyers on fragmented import channels, because local mills could not hit quality benchmarks.
AskedIs the gap wide enough and durable enough to underwrite?
BuiltScenario DCF across conservative, base and optimistic cases, stress-tested on shipping, raw material, blending and labour, plus primary research on competitor cost structure.
DidRan $6.5M through solo, $5.5M of it kraftliner paper.
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Learned to model it
Madrid, Spain
IE Business School
Master in Applied Economics and Master in Management
Sep 2024 – Jul 2026
Dual Master's. Three quantitative models built, Tech Venture Lab finalist, VBA capstone.
The detail
- Two degrees: Management, Sep 2024 to Dec 2025, GPA 3.64 / 4.0, and Applied Economics, Sep 2025 to Jul 2026, GPA 3.53 / 4.0.
- Derivatives pricing; market risk and counterparty credit risk; VaR, Expected Shortfall, EPE and PFE.
- Three quantitative models: statistical arbitrage across 118,833 S&P 500 pairs (DBSCAN, Engle-Granger), a GARCH-XGBoost volatility forecaster, and a macro-regime classifier (autoencoder, Gaussian mixture model). Pairs trading, volatility model, regime model.
- Tech Venture Lab, under the Management degree: defined the CAC and payback thresholds on the Hyundai España work, pitched to the CTO and CFO.
- Value Balancing Alliance capstone, Master in Applied Economics, 2025/26. Extended the VBA and Deloitte carbon valuation framework beyond carbon to water, waste, air and water pollution and land use, estimating 2025 versus 2050 internalisation rates per impact driver, per value-chain position and per regional water-stress context, anchored on IPCC AR6 WG2 Chapter 4. Includes payback-period analysis for proactive corporate investment. VBA capstone.
- The Intelligent Monopoly, a literary work. Regression on LLM infrastructure cost data finding that a 10% increase in concurrency lowers unit cost by roughly 2.6%, arguing AI infrastructure behaves as a natural monopoly, with an RPI-X price cap and statutory licensing proposal. Read the paper.
IE University graduation ceremony, 2025. The working
SawChurn after the four-year free service window, with no retention mechanism in place.
AskedWhat would retention have to cost to be worth doing?
BuiltChurn prediction, plus CAC and payback-period thresholds to test commercial viability.
DidPitched the approach to the CTO and CFO with a projected 45% loyalty uplift. Projection presented, never implemented.
AlsoPriced an externality that has no market price: the VBA capstone applies the same pricing problem the kraftliner trade solved, in a different domain.
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Went and built it
Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh, India
Vaayubon
Co-Founder and Chief Financial Officer
Sep 2025 – Present
150 farmers signed on, facility in build-out, outcome open.
The detail
- 10-member core team. Feedstock network of 150 farmers under aggregation agreements, counted separately from the team.
- Built on an Article 6 thesis: agricultural residue converted by pyrolysis into durable biochar, the profile removal buyers pay a premium for.
- Modelled unit economics to a $76/tonne margin against forward offtakes. Evaluating Puro.earth and Verra methodologies to anchor the MRV build.
- Pitched 15+ investors. IE Venture Day Sustainability Prize winner, no round closed. Digital MRV is roadmap rather than built.
Biochar market slide from the Vaayubon investor deck. The working
SawAgricultural residue burned across India while Article 6 implementation was still being written.
AskedDoes a credit count at all under rules that do not exist yet, and can the unit economics work without subsidy?
BuiltModelled contribution margin per tonne against forward offtake structures, then tested whether the economics survive without subsidy.
DidSigned 150 farmers in Anantapur onto the pilot. Facility in build-out, outcome still open.
Three times I have found something the market had mispriced.
2023 · Kraftliner paper
An unserved supply gap across India and Sri Lanka. Ran $5.5M of kraftliner through it, as part of $6.5M of physical trade run solo.
2025 · S&P 500 equities
Screened 118,833 fundamental twin pairs with DBSCAN, then found 28,429 cointegrated at above 90% confidence with Engle-Granger tests.
2025 · Agricultural residue
India's agri-waste priced against Article 6 carbon markets. 150 farmers signed on in Anantapur, facility in build-out, outcome still open.
The method is the same each time: find where value sits unpriced, build the model that proves whether it holds, then own the outcome.
Winner, IE Venture Day (Sustainability Prize). Best Presenter Award, IE Business School consulting pitch. Top 25 finalist, BBVA Asset Management Inside (200+ teams).
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